MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
Payrolls rise by 263,000 in September, unemployment rate edges down to 3.5 percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care. The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.3 percent in September, and the employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.1 percent. Both measures are 1.1 percentage points below their values in February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Revolving credit use rises 18.1 percent in August as balances surpass $1.5 trillion
In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.3 percent. Revolving credit (such as credit cards) increased at an annual rate of 18.1 percent, the highest rate so far in 2022. Total revolving credit balances surpassed $1.5 trillion in August, a record high. Nonrevolving credit (such as loans for cars and college tuition) increased at an annual rate of 5.1 percent.
CEO confidence dips on economic forecasts
After back-to-back monthly increases in optimism, Chief Executive’s CEO Confidence Index, which measures CEOs’ outlook for business over the coming year, dipped 3 percent in October, settling at 5.75 on a scale of 1-10, down from 5.92 in September. Overall, 48 percent of the 166 respondents forecasted that business conditions would worsen over the coming year, up from 39 percent in September. Only 24 percent now expect things to have improved by fall 2023, down from 32 percent at this time last month.