10/30: MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY

Third quarter GDP grew by 3.5 percent in advance estimate

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

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October consumer sentiment dips but YTD average still highest since 2000

The Consumer Sentiment Index has been higher thus far in 2018 (98.5) than in any prior year since 2000, which was the last year of the longest expansion since the mid-1800s. Importantly, stock price declines, rising inflation and interest rates, and the negative mid-term election campaigns, have not acted to undermine consumer confidence.

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Fed’s Beige Book:  Mostly modest to moderate growth reported through mid-October

Economic activity expanded across the United States, with the majority of Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth. New York and St. Louis indicated slight growth, overall, while Dallas reported robust growth driven by strong manufacturing, retail, and nonfinancial services activity.

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