MetroIntelligence Economic Update by P. DUFFY
November CPI up 0.8 percent and 6.8 percent year-on-year, but rate of monthly increase subsiding
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in October, and was up 6.8 percent year-on-year (the highest annual rate since 1982). The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in November following a 0.6-percent increase in October, and was up 4.9 percent year-on-year (the highest annual rate since 1991). In both cases, the annual increase is capturing higher monthly rates earlier in 2021. The monthly figure for all categories except for transportation services (i.e., Uber/Lyft/airfare) was lower in November vs. October.
Consumer sentiment posts 4.5 percent gain in early December, but still down 12.8 percent year-on-year
Consumer Sentiment posted a small overall gain in early December (+4.5%), although it was still nearly identical to the average reading in the prior four months (70.6), and is down 12.8 percent year-on-year. The more interesting result was the large disparity between monthly gain among households with incomes in the lowest third (+23.6%) of the income distribution compared with the modest losses among households in the middle (-3.8%) and top third (-4.3%).
Renters three times more likely than homeowners to miss payments in Sep. & Oct.
Renters were roughly three times more likely than homeowners to miss payments during September and October 2021. The share of renters who missed, delayed, or made a reduced payment increased from 8.6% in July 2021 to 9.6% in September 2021 and 10.9% in October 2021. Fewer homeowners missed payments in September (3.2%) compared to June and July (4.6% and 3.8%, respectively), but the share did rise in October (3.8%).