7/16: EconUpdate by P. Duffy

EconUpdate by P. Duffy

Initial unemployment claims dip 6.7 percent, continued claims dip 3.7 percent

What does this mean? Unemployment claims continue to trend towards pre-pandemic levels as jobs are filled.

In the week ending July 10, initial unemployment claims were 360,000, a decrease of 26,000, or 6.7 percent, from the previous week’s revised level. Continued claims during the week ending July 3 were 3,241,000, a decrease of 126,000, or 3.7 percent, from the previous week’s revised level. The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending June 26 was 13,836,598, a decrease of 372,279, or 2.6 percent, from the previous week.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Industrial production up 0.4 percent in June and 9.8 percent year-on-year

What does this mean? Although not yet back to pre-pandemic levels, industrial production continues to rebound.

Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in June after moving up 0.7 percent in May, and was up 9.8 percent year-on-year. For the second quarter as a whole, total industrial production rose at an annual rate of 5.5 percent. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.3 percentage point in June to 75.4 percent, a rate that is 4.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2020) average.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm

End of federal unemployment benefits expected to help fill 1.84 million jobs through end of 2021

What does this mean?  Regardless of the reasons for remaining on unemployment, look for job growth to rise as benefits end

The termination of federal unemployment insurance benefits is likely to produce an estimated 1.84 million jobs through the end of the year, particularly as more UI recipients begin actively looking for work.  Still, the U.S. economy will remain roughly 4.7 million jobs short of where it was prior to the pandemic even after workers on unemployment insurance return to working.

https://morningconsult.com/2021/07/14/expiring-unemployment-insurance/