8/2: MetroIntelligence Econ Update, P.DUFFY

June construction spending fell by largest amount in over a year, but previous months’ totals revised upwards

Construction spending fell 1.1 percent in June, the largest decline since April 2017. However, data for May was revised up to show construction outlays rising 1.3 percent instead of the previously reported 0.4 percent gain, and April’s outlays increased 1.7 percent instead of the previously estimated 0.9 percent.

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ADP: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Private-sector employment increased by 219,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.  This compares to 181,000 in June and 203,000 in July of 2017.

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Fed-preferred June PCE Price Index up 0.1 percent from May and 2.2 percent year-on-year

In June, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Year-on-year, the PCE price Index rose 2.2 percent.  Excluding food and energy, the index rose 1.9 percent.

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May Case-Shiller Index up 1.1 percent from April and 6.4 percent year-on-year

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.4% annual gain in May, remaining the same as in the previous month. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.1% in May.

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Wage inflation:  2Q 2018 compensation costs rose at highest annual rate since 2008

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2018. Wages and salaries increased 0.5 percent and benefit costs increased 0.9 percent.  Year-on-year, compensation costs rose 2.8 percent, with wages and salaries up 2.8 percent and benefits rising 2.9 percent.

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June personal income and personal spending both rose 0.4 percent, savings rate unchanged

In June, personal income, disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditures all increased 0.4 percent.  The personal savings rate was unchanged from May at 6.8 percent.

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July consumer confidence index rebounds slightly from June

Consumer confidence gained marginal ground by rising 0.3 points in July, after a modest decline in June. Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved, suggesting that economic growth is still strong. However, while expectations continue to reflect optimism in the short-term economic outlook, back-to-back declines suggest consumers do not foresee growth accelerating.

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